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張哲榮教授在《Journal of Grey System》發表高水平論文
發布人:胡凌松??發布時間:2023-12-29?? 瀏覽次數:95

學術研究前沿| An extrapolation non-equigap grey model for operation management

  

研究成果:An extrapolation non-equigap grey model for operation management

作    者:張哲榮

發表期刊:Journal of Grey System,2023, 35(1): 101-112.

  

內容簡介:Accurate short-term demand forecasting is crucial for the production plandevelopment, but a shorter forecasting period implies that the product demands aremore unstable and, thus, that ascertaining their developing trends is difficult.Therefore, using large historical observations to build forecasting models may notresult in favorable forecasting performance. Prediction methods based on the latestlimited data have thus become vital for maintaining management efficiency andcompetitive advantage. Grey system theory is a technique for resolving thisdifficulty. However, the conventional grey model is designed for time-series datafeaturing equigaps, which limits its application scope. Although in the currentpublished research, scholars have proposed some non-equigap grey models;however, the newest datum is usually weakened to alleviate the randomness of datain these models, which may result in a larger prediction error. To conquer theseshortcomings, this study introduces linear extrapolation to modeling procedures foremphasizing the importance of the newest datum and then proposes an improvednon-equigap grey model. In the experiments of two real cases, the proposed methodexhibits favorable forecasting performance, indicating a feasible solution for smallnon-equigap dataforecasting.

  

期刊簡介:Journal of Grey System是由Research Information Ltd所出版的英文期刊。期刊目前被SCIE引文索引數據庫收錄。

 

   作者簡介:張哲榮博士,陳守仁商學院教授、碩士生導師。主要從事管理科學、生產管理、小數據分析等領域的教學與科研工作。主持福建省社會科學規劃項目2項、浙江省自然科學基金項目2項、浙江省錢江人才計劃C類項目1項、臺灣地區行政院(國家科學委員會)項目2項、主持校級項目若干;在SCI/SSCI發表文章31篇,成果獲校級科研優秀獎,入選泉州市桐江學者特聘教授、泉州市高層次人才第三層次人才、寧波市3315計劃第七梯次長期創新人才。

 

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